The Strategist

OECD updates its macro forecast for 2021-2022

06/01/2021 - 03:42

The rate of global economic growth over the next two years may be slightly higher than recently expected. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development's (OECD) May report improved its forecast for global GDP growth to 5.8% in 2021 and to 4.4% in 2022.
The OECD predicts a marked improvement in global economic indicators and a return of most countries to pre-crisis levels by the end of 2022. According to the report of this organization, the growth of global GDP in 2021 is projected at 5.8% (0.2 p. more than expected in March), in 2022 - 4.4% (0.4 p. more).

Previously, against the background of active vaccination, new budget support packages and effective pandemic management, the global macro-forecast has already been revised upwards by the International Monetary Fund: the expected global GDP growth in 2021 was increased from 5,5% to 6%, from 4,2% to 4,4% in 2022.

The OECD notes that 16 months after the start of the pandemic, most countries have managed to adapt to new outbreaks of coronavirus.

As a result, the manufacturing sector is growing, trade is recovering as borders open and the resumption of labour activity is accompanied by a surge in consumption.

The OECD notes that the global economic recovery will be uneven and by 2023 many countries will not reach the standard of living expected before the pandemic. New outbreaks will still have a strong impact on low-income countries primarily because of vaccine shortages. This will exacerbate their poverty-related problems and also increase inequalities between countries.