The Strategist

IMF improves forecast for US GDP growth in 2020, downgrades for 2021

10/14/2020 - 06:02

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) improved its forecast for the growth rate of US GDP this year, but worsened the expected indicators for 2021.
This follows from the report of the fund, presented on Tuesday in Washington during the autumn session of the governing bodies of the IMF and the World Bank.

According to the IMF, this year the US GDP will decrease by 4.3%, in the updated June forecast this figure was 8%. In 2021, US GDP growth is expected to be 3.1%, down 1.4 percentage points from the previous IMF report.

According to fund analysts, the unemployment rate in the US this year will be 8.9%, and in 2021 it will drop to 7.3%.

The pandemic has led to a deep international economic crisis.

Meanwhile, the US administration believes that the American economy has managed to overcome the recession rather quickly and re-enter the growth trajectory. The Fed in September improved its forecast for a fall in US GDP in 2020 from 6.5% to 3.7%, in 2021 - from 5% to 4%, and in 2022 - from 3.5% to 3%.

At the end of 2023, the Fed expects GDP growth at 2.5%. In addition, the Fed was more optimistic in September about the dynamics of employment in the US in the coming years. The forecast for the unemployment rate in the United States in 2020 was reduced from 9.3% to 7.6%, in 2021 - from 6.5% to 5.5%. In 2023, the Fed expects an unemployment rate of around 4%.