The Strategist

IMF does not expect recession in US economy

04/20/2022 - 11:10

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) does not forecast a recession in the US economy. This was reported by the director of the IMF Monetary and Capital Markets Department Tobias Adrian.

Adrian noted that so far the fund does not expect recession, but there are still risks of unfavourable developments in the American economy. "If further negative supply shocks or real activity follows, we could definitely see worse results than what is currently projected in the baseline scenario," the IMF official said during the briefing.

He also noted that "the US is now in a high-risk situation and it is very important that the Federal Reserve builds on the data and clearly communicates its monetary policy plans."

Earlier today the IMF lowered the growth forecast for the US economy in 2022 to 3.7% from January's estimate of 4%, and for 2023 to 2.3% from 2.6% previously expected. The fund’s experts attribute the reduction in the forecast to the Fed's rapid abandonment of monetary policy.