The Strategist

'Anyone But Trump' - US Financiers Agree That Trump's Victory Would Be a Disaster

03/15/2016 - 14:39

Some of the most authoritative representatives of Wall Street almost unanimously do not want to see Donald Trump as US President.v

Gage Skidmore via flickr
Gage Skidmore via flickr
The channel CNBC held a conference where financial leaders came up with different projections for the US economy. According to them, we should expect S&P 500 index falling from 4% to 10%.

However, as soon as it came to political issues, "bulls" and "bears" united in their opinion that Donald Trump is a disaster for the stock and trade market.

The famous investor, head of Blackstone Byron Wien (21 years of experience in Morgan Stanley), is seriously concerned about the prospect of Trump's victory in the presidential election.

"This man is terrorizing Mexico, and, to a large extent, Europe, makes an attack on Islam, moreover, he does not condemn the Ku Klux Klan. Undoubtedly, it was a difficult year, and it’s going to be even worse. I do not want to prejudge the establishment of Donald Trump’s rule, but I do know that he will do everything for this"- Wien said.

Economists from both sides spoke out about Trump’s controversial positions on trade and immigration. Some believe that his threat to set tariffs on Chinese imports will lead to a war, or even a global recession. Wien also criticized the billionaire's plans with respect to trade in real estate, which threaten to insulate the US economy from the major trading partners.

Wien’s fears are shared by chairman and chief executive officer of Centurion Holdings Joseph Grano - a key figure, appeared after the merger between UBS and PaineWebber:

"If Trump starts to behave like a future president, keeps the rhetoric and abandon the kinks in his speeches, I think he can be a candidate of the Republican Party, but I do not think that he could win the presidential race," - Grano said.

He also reminded about Trump's opinion about taxation. With this in mind, Grano supported the candidacy of Governor of Ohio John Kasich. The businessman thinks that Kasich will be clearly comprehensible both for the government and for the country. He is a pragmatist with an excellent reputation.

Once known as trader, and now art dealer Asher Edelman, who has bought up and sold distressed companies on Wall Street for nearly 30 years, expressed a different view. After retiring from the world of finance, he founded Edelman Arts in New York to focus on the art market.

When considering the candidates, Edelman did not hesitate to admit that he supports Bernie Sanders, challenging the former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

"Bernie is the only person who even speaks of fiscal stimulus and new bank rules by which it will be possible to hold back lending, not speculation," - said Edelman.

He added that, thanks to Sanders, the broad masses would ultimately increase the purchasing power.

Edelman stressed that well-secured middle class will have more impact on the US economy than the tiny class of ultra-rich people.

"1% of the richest people in the country spend 5-10% of their income. The lower strata of the population are able to spend 100-110% of their income. Therefore, in the process of outflow of basic income to the notorious 1% of the population, we have a sharp decline in consumer base as a result,"- said the expert.

Abby Joseph Cohen began her career as an economist at the Federal Reserve after graduating from Cornell University. Soon after, she joined Goldman Sachs in 1990. In 1996, she was granted the title of managing director and then became a partner in Goldman Sachs in 1998

Cohen, who became famous thanks to her "bullish" outlook in the 90-ies, explained that the main issue for the next president of the United States is to carry out a general tax reform.

"We focus on those who offer solutions for the basic problems of the US economy, including a disappointing state of average-income families, the need to create more secure jobs, as well as improvements in the US innovation and competitiveness," - said Cohen.

Cohen data of the Tax Foundation and the Tax Policy Center. Thus, according to the Tax Foundation, former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s plan for 10 years will bring $ 498 billion in total; plan of Bernie Sanders - $ 13.5 trillion, but the GDP growth will make up 18.6% at the time. For comparison, a 10-year GDP growth, according to Clinton’s plan, will be -1.0%. Trump’s plan assumes GDP growth of 11.5% over 10 years, but during the same period, we can expect losses of $ 12 trillion.