The Strategist

Wood McKenzie: We will reach the peak of oil consumption not later than 2030

10/18/2017 - 14:29

Wood McKenzie research company has released a report, which shows that demand for gasoline will reach an absolute peak in the next 13 years. This will be followed by years of zero growth and, finally, a drop associated with the growth of the electric vehicle market. Earlier, other experts made similar forecasts, but attributed the peak to a longer term.

The world consumption of gasoline will reach a peak no later than 2030. This was reported in a new study by the British consulting company Wood McKenzie.

This will be the result of the growth of the market of electric vehicles and the action of regulators, forcing automakers to invent and deliver to the market cars with more economical internal combustion engines. Experts remind that of the 96 million barrels of oil daily consumed on a global scale, 60 million barrels fall on transport. It is in this sector that the growth in demand for gasoline will cease by 2030.

At the same time, as the senior analyst at Wood McKenzie says, the worries associated with reaching the peak, markets and states will be felt even earlier, as oil companies are likely to be prepared ahead of time, reducing investments in oil refineries and reducing the number of petrol stations.

For countries that are heavily dependent on excise taxes or fuel taxes (for example, British excises bring the treasury £ 28 billion annually, in Russia in 2017, it is estimated that the excise on gasoline will bring 135 billion rubles, for diesel fuel - 81 billion rubles), such a change in the demand for gasoline will be very painful.

"We are learning to be more effective in terms of energy use. Therefore, we are becoming less dependent on oil. Thus, the importance of oil in the global economy should be declining over time," The Guardian quotes the senior analyst of Wood McKenzie, Alan Gelder. According to him, the real growth of the electric vehicle market will begin after 2025, and 10% of all cars sold in the world will have an electric motor by 2030. This process will accelerate if cities and countries start banning cars with internal combustion engines (the UK, France and China already have such plans).

According to Wood Mackenzie’s experts, the market was previously worried about reaching the maximum peak of the offer. Now, however, we should rather be worried about the peak of demand.

Wood McKenzie, of course, are not the only experts who predict the peak of gasoline consumption. However, the difference between their forecast and the others lies in the fact that the peak is expected to come earlier. BP says this will happen in the mid 40-ies of this century, according to the International Energy Agency - by 2040. And only Shell experts believe that the peak will be achieved even earlier - in the very beginning of the 30s.