The Strategist

Will bookmakers' predict 2019 United Kingdom general election?

11/18/2019 - 09:36

If you listen to bookmakers, it becomes clear that the central issue of the upcoming elections in the UK is not the victory of Boris Johnson, his ability to pry himself away from the competitors.

Alex McGregor
Alex McGregor
According to bookmaker Paddy Power, Johnson is the favorite among the vast majority of the country's population. Many want him to remain as Prime Minister after the December 12 vote.

With the current betting ratios for Johnson to lead the government, gamblers need to bet £3 ($3.86) to win £1. In other words, Johnson has a 75% chance of retaining his job from a bookmaker's counterplay point of view.

In addition, he is likely to have an increasing chance of winning an absolute majority in parliament. Judging by Johnson's repeated statements, this is exactly what will help him put an end to the protracted Brexit situation.

According to representatives of the British bookmaker Ladbrokes, Johnson's chance to get the majority of votes is 60%. They put forward such an assumption even before Nigel Farage, the leader of Brexit, said that his party would not challenge the 317 seats won by the conservatives in 2017.

"According to last week's bets, the most likely outcome would be a situation in which no party would win a majority in parliament. But over the weekend, the situation has changed, and now it is clear that the majority is going to the conservatives," says Ladbrokes.

Analysts and traders are looking into bookmakers' assumptions, hoping that this will help them predict the outcome of market events, although the reliability of such assumptions was undermined in the 2016 referendum on British membership in the European Union. Bookmakers then assumed that voters were 90% likely to decide to stay in the union.

Current forecasts are also based on public opinion polls, which show that Conservatives will outperform Labour by an average of 12 percentage points.

The odds of the Labour Party leader, Jeremy Corbyn, are 2/1, or 33%. This means that players need to risk one pound to win two. Corbyn's party is likely to reach a full majority of approximately 5% in the House of Commons, according to Betfair.