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The WTO report predicts that growth will rise to 4.1% by 2027.
Since the start of the year, worldwide trade has shown more strength than expected, even with interruptions resulting from the conflict in the Middle East. Supply chains have adjusted to new circumstances, and significant investment in artificial intelligence (AI) has greatly enhanced merchandise trade.
Nonetheless, this resilience has not been consistent; trade in services and specific areas have shown greater susceptibility to the conflict's effects.
As a result, WTO economists have increased their predictions for merchandise trade expansion for 2026 but have downgraded their expectations for services trade, pointing to the conflict in the Middle East affecting the transport industry and global travel.
The WTO projects that the services trade volume will increase by 3.3% this year (a decrease from the March prediction of 4.8%) and by 6.4% in 2027.
During the initial six months of 2026, worldwide merchandise trade grew by 3.5%. At the same time, oil shipments from the Middle East decreased by almost 24%, while LNG shipments declined by 47%.
The report indicated that container throughput increased by 3.9% in the January–July timeframe (the most recent data available). The organization's specialists project worldwide GDP expansion of 2.6% in 2026 and 2.9% in the subsequent year. In March, they anticipated a rise of 2.8% for each time frame.
source: wto.org
Since the start of the year, worldwide trade has shown more strength than expected, even with interruptions resulting from the conflict in the Middle East. Supply chains have adjusted to new circumstances, and significant investment in artificial intelligence (AI) has greatly enhanced merchandise trade.
Nonetheless, this resilience has not been consistent; trade in services and specific areas have shown greater susceptibility to the conflict's effects.
As a result, WTO economists have increased their predictions for merchandise trade expansion for 2026 but have downgraded their expectations for services trade, pointing to the conflict in the Middle East affecting the transport industry and global travel.
The WTO projects that the services trade volume will increase by 3.3% this year (a decrease from the March prediction of 4.8%) and by 6.4% in 2027.
During the initial six months of 2026, worldwide merchandise trade grew by 3.5%. At the same time, oil shipments from the Middle East decreased by almost 24%, while LNG shipments declined by 47%.
The report indicated that container throughput increased by 3.9% in the January–July timeframe (the most recent data available). The organization's specialists project worldwide GDP expansion of 2.6% in 2026 and 2.9% in the subsequent year. In March, they anticipated a rise of 2.8% for each time frame.
source: wto.org
