The Strategist

WTO expects slowdown in global trade growth in late 2022-2023

11/29/2022 - 09:15

WTO analysts estimate that the world trade index is currently at 96.2 points with a baseline value of 100.

According to the most recent WTO Merchandise Trade Barometer, which was published on November 28, as the global economy continues to experience significant headwinds, trade growth is anticipated to decline in the last months of 2022 and into 2023.

The WTO stated that the current value of 96.2 is lower than both the index baseline and the prior reading of 100.0 from August, which "reflects the cooling demand for traded products."

The fall is consistent with the WTO's October forecast, which expected that the volume of global trade will increase by 3.5% in 2022 and only 1% in 2023. The WTO refers to the Ukraine conflict's effects, high energy prices, and tightening monetary policy in key economies.