The Strategist

US elections provoke a storm in stock markets

11/05/2020 - 03:07

The prolonged counting of votes in the US presidential elections has made investors around the world nervous. By the end of the trading day, however, financial markets seemed to have decided that Joe Biden would become President. The leading indices rose by 2-4% and the dollar weakened as more stimulus measures were expected from the democratic candidate.

On 4th November, financial markets were being feverish during all the trading day. Donald Trump took the lead at the start of the vote counting in the US, then it was Joe Biden, but the former vice president did not give up until late.

Investor sentiment also changed in line with the votes cast by the candidates. Currency trading was the most volatile.

According to Reuters, the DXY index (the exchange rate of the dollar against the six leading currencies) fell below 93.1 points and rose to 94.3 points. The euro rallied from $1.177 to $1.16 and back. Gold quotations also changed abruptly: at times they exceeded $1916 per troy ounce, at times they rolled back to $1882 in a couple of hours. In previous days, such movements took a whole day, if not more.

Trading on stock exchanges was no less dramatic. Having opened with a fall of 1.5-2%, the leading European indices had fully won it back by noon, and by the end of the day showed an increase of 1.4-2%.

The folly may also lead to an increase in the value of gold, which acts as a protective asset in such conditions. Jeff Wright, Executive Vice President of GoldMining Inc., said to MarketWatch that this would raise gold prices above $2,000 per troy ounce. CFRA Chief Investment Officer Sam Stovall links the growth of the NASDAQ high-tech sector to investor expectations that the Democrat government will not be able to tightly regulate major technology giants such as Amazon or Google.