The Strategist

The Worst Economies in 2016

02/26/2016 - 16:39

What economies will have the most difficult time in 2016? Where the recession risk is greatest and when to expect recovery of the economic "losers"? Economists surveyed by Bloomberg answered these questions.

Christine Werner
Christine Werner
According to the forecast of experts, the most problematic would be Venezuela (-3.3%), Brazil (-2.5%) and Greece (-1.8%) and Ecuador (0.5%). The top ten worst also features Argentina, whose economy did not grow at all, Japan, Finland, Croatia, and Switzerland – the growth, yet sluggish, still expected there.

The worst economies in 2016

According to request of Bloomberg, economists have estimated the possibility of falling GDP for 93 economies. The most gloomy forecasts were given to Ukraine (recession probability of 60%), Argentine (60%) and Taiwan economy (55%). Russia is also proved to be among the most vulnerable: the probability of non-exit from recession in 2016 was 65%; only Brazil promise greater risk of reducing the economy (75%).

According to experts, Latin America will be the most problematic continent this year in general. There, Venezuela is waiting for the third consecutive decrease in annual GDP, while Brazil can face the deepest recession since 1901. Last year, two rating agencies - Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings - have lowered the Brazilian credit rating to "junk".

Of the European countries, Finland and Switzerland hit the top ten economic "losers", with predicted growth of 1% and 1.2% respectively. The first suffered because of the geographical proximity and close economic ties with Russia, the second reflected effects of the sudden cancellation of the ceiling exchange rate of the franc to the euro, kept stable for more than three years - the decision taken by the National Bank in January 2015.