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In 2020, governments in the region increased borrowing immediately by $120bn (to $672bn, net of refinancing, the 'net' amount of new placements was $395bn). This year it is estimated at $273bn. As a percentage of GDP, the figure could rise to 40.7%, while before the pandemic the share was 31% (last year it rose to 39.6%).
The biggest borrower may once again be Turkey ($78.6bn versus $68.2bn a year earlier, taking the total to $252.7bn), followed by Egypt and Russia. Egypt has the highest debt load in the region at $314bn or 88% of GDP and is likely to borrow $63bn this year compared to $57bn the previous year. Russia, S&P forecasts, may place $52.1bn worth of liabilities, compared with $74.1bn in 2020 (in which case it would rise to $270.4bn compared with $228.5 in 2020, $191.4 in 2019 and $148.1 in 2018). By comparison, Saudi Arabia increased its debt by $40 billion last year (this year a comparable increase is expected - by $37.3 billion, to $262.2 billion). The other two big borrowers are Israel, with $50.7 bln borrowing against $70.4 bln in 2020 (up to $321.2 bln), and Poland, with $44.7 bln against $48 bln (up to $279.3 bln).
By comparison, in developed countries last year, new borrowing was at a record high of $18 trillion, equivalent to 29% of GDP (up $6.8 trillion, or 12% of GDP, from a year earlier), according to the OECD. Net borrowing (net of refinancing) rose to $8.6 trillion from $1.7 trillion in 2019 - more than the total for the past five years. This year, the increase could amount to another $5 trillion. As a result, the debt-to-GDP ratio will increase by 16 percentage points by the end of 2020 and another 4 percentage points in 2021 (up to about 90% of GDP, or $60 trillion).
source: standardandpoors.com
The biggest borrower may once again be Turkey ($78.6bn versus $68.2bn a year earlier, taking the total to $252.7bn), followed by Egypt and Russia. Egypt has the highest debt load in the region at $314bn or 88% of GDP and is likely to borrow $63bn this year compared to $57bn the previous year. Russia, S&P forecasts, may place $52.1bn worth of liabilities, compared with $74.1bn in 2020 (in which case it would rise to $270.4bn compared with $228.5 in 2020, $191.4 in 2019 and $148.1 in 2018). By comparison, Saudi Arabia increased its debt by $40 billion last year (this year a comparable increase is expected - by $37.3 billion, to $262.2 billion). The other two big borrowers are Israel, with $50.7 bln borrowing against $70.4 bln in 2020 (up to $321.2 bln), and Poland, with $44.7 bln against $48 bln (up to $279.3 bln).
By comparison, in developed countries last year, new borrowing was at a record high of $18 trillion, equivalent to 29% of GDP (up $6.8 trillion, or 12% of GDP, from a year earlier), according to the OECD. Net borrowing (net of refinancing) rose to $8.6 trillion from $1.7 trillion in 2019 - more than the total for the past five years. This year, the increase could amount to another $5 trillion. As a result, the debt-to-GDP ratio will increase by 16 percentage points by the end of 2020 and another 4 percentage points in 2021 (up to about 90% of GDP, or $60 trillion).
source: standardandpoors.com
