The Strategist

Pew Research: Proportion of Muslims in Europe can double

11/30/2017 - 11:52

American sociologists have presented three scenarios for the growth of the Muslim population in Europe. In Germany, the share of Muslims in the total number of the population may increase more than threefold.

SSgt. Derrick C. Goode
SSgt. Derrick C. Goode
The number of Muslims in Europe will increase dramatically over the next 30 years. This is evidenced by the data of the study of the American sociological center Pew Research Center, presented in Washington on Wednesday, November 29. Sociologists offer three possible scenarios.

Three scenarios for the development of the situation

The first variant considers a situation when migration to Europe completely ceases, and only natural growth will add to the population. Then, due to the high birth rate in Muslim families, the percentage of adherents of Islam in the total number of Europeans will increase from the current 4.9 to 7.4 percent.

Another option involves only routine, labor migration to European countries. 11.2 percent of Muslims will live in Europe in 2050 in this case. If the rate of influx into Europe of refugees from Islamic countries continues at the level of 2014-2016, the share of the Muslim population in Europe in 32 years will amount 14 percent.

In Germany, where currently 6.1% of the population are Muslims, these options mean, respectively, its increase to 8.7 percent in case of only natural increase, up to 10.8 percent in case of usual migration, and up to 19.7 percent with the continuation of the policy reception of refugees at the current pace.

The Pew Research Center’s survey covered 28 EU countries, as well as Norway and Switzerland. The authors emphasize that their forecasts can only be considered as approximate parameters. Due to unpredictable political and economic development, it is impossible to accurately predict the number of migrants who will settle in Europe in the future.