The Strategist

OPEC raises estimate of global energy demand by 2045

10/10/2023 - 06:32

According to the OPEC's annual review, the global energy consumption would rise to 359.2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2045.

Kent Kanouse
Kent Kanouse
The organization's analysts forecasted this number would reach 351 million bpd a year earlier.

As a result, the estimated oil demand rose by 6 million bpd to 106.6 million bpd from the projected from the previous year's expectation of 100.6 million bpd. The estimated nuclear demand grew from 23.3 million to 23.8 million boe/d. The demand forcast for "other renewables" was also increased by analysts, going from 38.3 million to 42.2 million boe/d.

The projection increased marginally for hydropower from 10.4 million to 10.5 million boe/d, for gas from 85.3 million to 87 million boe/d, and for biofuels from 34.9 million to 35.2 million boe/d. The estimated coal demand dropped from 58.2 million boe/d a year earlier to 54.4 million boe/d.

OPEC noted that the primary energy mix will change over the next few years, with an increasing share of renewables and nuclear, with some regions experiencing faster growth than others. "In the baseline scenario, long-term demand for all primary fuels is expected to increase, with the exception of coal, demand for which is declining mainly due to tighter climate change policies and announced plans to phase out coal in most major consuming regions," the group wrote.