The Strategist

OPEC downgrades oil production forecast

07/12/2019 - 10:00

OPEC lowered the forecast for non-cartel production growth for the current year by 95 thousand barrels per day (bpd) to 2.05 million bpd. As a result, the average volume of these shipments in the current year will amount to 64.43 million bpd. The decline can be explained by extension of the OPEC + transaction for nine months. Recall, OPEC and its allies explained the decision taken last week by the need to avoid increasing stocks, which could reduce prices.

In 2020, the total increase in production of non-cartel countries could reach 2.44 million bpd - the increase will be provided by the USA, Brazil, and Canada (the largest decline will be observed in Mexico). In the US, according to the forecast, production already this year will increase by 70 thousand bpd more than expected - by 1.37 million bpd, to 12.33 million bpd. A sharp increase in supply may occur after opening of the pipeline from the Permian basin (the key region of shale mining in the United States) to the Gulf of Mexico in the fourth quarter of this year. This will bring the US shipments to 13.33 million bpd by the end of the year.

In June 2019, compared with May, the total oil production increased by 470 thousand bpd, to 98.56 million bpd. Supplies of countries outside OPEC rose by 540 thousand bpd, including in Russia, production in June increased by 40 thousand bpd, to 11.34 million bpd (plus 100 thousand bpd year to year). Mining in countries of the cartel, according to secondary sources, decreased by 68 thousand bpd, to 29.83 million bpd. Saudi Arabia increased deliveries by 126 thousand bpd, to 9.81 million bpd, while oil production in Iran in June dropped another 142 thousand bpd to 2.23 million bpd, in Venezuela - by 16 thousand bpd, down to 734 thousand bpd.

OPEC's forecast of oil demand growth for 2019 was at 1.14 million bpd (up to 99.87 million bpd), in 2020 growth could also be 1.14 million bpd (up to 101, 01 million bpd). At the same time, the forecast of the demand for OPEC oil for this year increased by 100 thousand bpd, to 30.6 million bpd (this is 1 million bpd less than in 2018), but next year the forecast demand will be 1.3 million bpd lower and will be only 29.3 million bpd, the organization expects.