The Strategist

Leading traders forecast possible rise in oil prices to $100 a barrel

06/17/2021 - 03:49

Major commodity traders are predicting a possible return of oil prices to $100 a barrel. The price of oil, in their view, will be affected by a slowdown in investment in new supply amid peak demand.

The world's largest commodity traders do not rule out a rise in oil prices to $100 per barrel. They stated this at the conference FT Commodities Global Summit, reports Financial Times.

The cost of oil will rise because of the slowdown in investment in new supplies amid peak demand after the pandemic, traders said. Top managers and executives of Vitol, Glencore, Trafigura and Goldman Sachs, among others, said the price of the energy carrier may reach $100 in the future. 

According to Jeremy Weir, head of Trafigura, “the problem with oil is not demand, but supply”. He said he was extremely concerned about the lack of investment in new supply as the world is still not ready for a transition to clean energy and full electrification. 

Glencore's chief oil trader Alex Sanna also said a rise in oil prices to $100 a barrel was becoming increasingly likely. 

Marco Dunand, co-founder of the Mercuria trader, estimated that oil demand would recover to pre-pandemic levels and exceed 100 million bpd by the end of the year. Vitol's head Russell Hardy described the $100/bbl mark as 'likely', but said the market had 'spare' supply of around 5mn bbl, as OPEC+ countries, including Russia, are still limiting supplies because of the pandemic. 

The price of oil has not risen above $100 a barrel since 2014, says the FT. Since the early 2000s prices have risen from around $10 a barrel to more than $100 a barrel in 2008 on the back of growing demand from China. Over the next six years, prices remained in the $100 range.