The Strategist

India's GDP falls by 23.9% in Q2

09/01/2020 - 02:59

National Statistics Office of India released data for the first quarter of the 2020-2021 fiscal year, which ended at the end of June.

India's GDP during this period fell by 23.9% compared to the first quarter of last year. This is the largest decline since 1996, when India began publishing quarterly data.

The decline turned out to be stronger than analysts expected: they forecasted that GDP would fall by 18-19%. In the previous quarter, however, India's GDP was still growing by 3.1%. At the same time, analysts expect the decline to continue in the next quarter, which will mean a technical recession. India's GDP is likely to fall by the end of the year as well - it will be the first annual decline since 1980.

Industrial production in India fell by almost 40% in the first quarter, consumer spending - by 31.2% and capital investment - by 47.9%. Only agriculture showed some growth over the quarter - by 3.4%.

In recent days, India has shown the maximum daily increase in COVID-19 cases in the world: their total number exceeded 3.6 million people, about 64 thousand people died.