The Strategist

IEA raises oil demand forecast for 2022-2023

12/15/2022 - 09:07

The International Energy Agency (IEA) increased its prediction for the world's oil demand in 2022 by 140,000 bpd. The figure is now expected to reach 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd).

Carol M. Highsmith
Carol M. Highsmith
In its December report, the agency noted a 100,000 bpd increase in the prediction for 2023, to 1.7 million bpd. After five months of expansion, the total world oil supply decreased by 190,000 bpd to 101.7 million bpd.

The European Union (EU) embargo, which went into effect in November, is expected to cause Russia to cut back on oil output by 400 thousand barrels per day (bpd) in December.

Production could decrease by 1.8 million bpd by April 2023 compared to February this year. By the end of 2023, the agency predicts a drop in Russia's production of liquid hydrocarbons to 9.6 million bpd.
On December 5, the EU imposed a ban on the export of Russian oil to third parties at a price of more than $60 per barrel. Australia and Norway joined the limitations, in addition to the G7 nations. If Russia refuses to deliver, the IEA predicted summertime gas shortages in Europe.