The Strategist

IEA expects global oil demand, US share in global oil production to increase

11/15/2019 - 09:03

Global demand for oil will increase by 6.8% by 2025, compared to 103.5 million barrels per day in 2018, the International Energy Agency (IEA) notes.

At the same time, the demand for oil in developing countries will be growing annually by 900 thousand barrels per day. By 2040, global demand will increase by 9.8% to 106.4 million barrels per day, the IEA notes.

Demand for oil in the U.S. will begin to decline. By 2025, the demand will be reduced to 18.4 mln bpd from 18.5 mln bpd in 2018. By 2030, the figure will drop to 17.4 million bpd, by 2040 - up to 15.1 mln bpd.

Meanwhile, oil production in OPEC countries will decrease by 3.2% to 36.2 million barrels by 2025 compared to 2018. At the same time, after 2025 the indicator will start to grow and reach 40.1 million barrels per day by 2040.

The decrease in production by 2025 can be explained by a decrease in Iran. By 2025, oil production in Iran will decrease from 4.6 mln bpd in 2018 to 3.8 mln bpd in 2025. In 2030, the indicator will amount to 4.1 million bpd and will grow up to 2040.

The growth of production by OPEC countries, according to the IEA, will ensure Iraq. Thus, oil production in Iraq will increase to 5.3 million bpd from 4.7 million bpd in 2018 by 2025. In 2018-2040 production in the country will continue to grow and by 2040 will amount to 6.5 million barrels per day.

Oil production by OPEC's largest member, Saudi Arabia, will also continue to grow. This figure will increase by 1.6% by 2025, compared to 2018, to 12.6 million bpd. By 2040, production will increase to 13.1 mln barrels bpd.

The high volume of oil production in the USA reduces the share of OPEC countries and Russia in the global production. The IEA forecasts that this share will decrease to 47% in 2030 from 55% in the mid-2000s.