The Strategist

IEA: US will become a leader in oil and gas production by 2025

11/17/2017 - 13:33

According to experts, the US will overtake Russia (the current leader) and will become the world leader in oil production by 2025.

IEA specialists predict that world demand for oil will increase by about 10 percent by 2040. At the same time, the United States will become the undisputed leader in the world oil and gas market. It is expected that by 2025, oil production in the United States will reach 16.8 million barrels per day. According to the agency's forecast, Saudi Arabia will take the second place with the indicator of 12.3 million barrels. Russia, the current leader, will occupy only third place: according to the report, by 2025 the volume of Russian oil production will drop to 10.5 million barrels (in 2016 this figure was 11.3 million), and by 2040 - up to 8.6 million barrels per day.

At the same time, the level of consumption of natural gas will increase by 45 percent. According to the report, the total volume of world gas production by 2025 will exceed 4 trillion, by 2040 - 5.3 trillion cubic meters. It is expected that the US will dominate here, too. According to the IEA, by 2025, Americans will overtake Russia and will produce 971 billion, and by 2040 - more than 1 trillion cubic meters of gas.

The IEA believes that shale gas will be the main driver of global gas production growth. This will be possible primarily due to the use of the American method of fracking - a controversial technology for the extraction of shale gas with the help of hydraulic fracturing of geological rocks.

This technology has been rapidly spreading in recent years in the US. This led to large-scale environmental protests, which argue that the development of shale gas deposits is harmful to the environment. In particular, activists fear that using this method will lead to contamination of groundwater and air by toxic chemical compounds.

Meanwhile, OPEC believes that for the period from 2016 to 2040, the demand for black gold in the world could grow by 16.5 percent. If measured with barrels, then for 24 years it should grow by 1.7 million barrels per day to a level of 111.1 million barrels, analysts of the cartel suggest.

At the same time, OPEC says that hydrocarbons will continue to play a dominant role in the world energy balance, and their total contribution may be about 52 percent. And of all the oil that will be present in the world market, 37 percent will come from oil produced by OPEC countries.

In the future, the demand for black gold as a component of the world energy balance will decline. In general, however, the negative dynamics is small - from a share of 31 percent in 2015 to 27 percent in 2040. Yet, it will be indicative that humanity is waiting for explosive growth of renewable energy sources in the world balance.

However, explosive (almost 4 times) is a relative term. In absolute terms, OPEC suggests, the share in the next quarter of the century will grow from 1.4 to 5.4 percent.

The total demand for primary energy resources will increase by 35 percent, to 371.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.