The Strategist

IATA downgrades forecast for fall in passenger traffic in 2020 to 55%

07/29/2020 - 11:23

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has worsened the baseline forecast for the fall in passenger air traffic in 2020 to the last year's indicator: in April, the organization was expecting a fall by 46%, now - by 55%.

IATA associates such pessimism with several trends: a slow containment of the spread of the coronavirus in the United States and developing countries, a reduction in corporate travel (due to financial pressure on businesses), and weak consumer confidence (due to fears of rising unemployment and risks of catching the virus).

In 2021, global passenger traffic will grow by 62% compared to the "depressed" base of 2020, but it will be 30% lower than in 2019, according to IATA. Full recovery to last year's levels is expected only in 2023 - a year later than the previous forecast expected.

Since the recovery of passenger traffic on small routes is expected to be faster than on long-haul routes, passenger traffic will recover more slowly. This indicator will return to the "dock" level no earlier than 2024 - also a year later than IATA predicted earlier.

"Scientific advances in the fight against COVID-19, including the development of a successful vaccine, could accelerate recovery. However, there now appear to be more downside risks than higher baseline projections," IATA concluded.


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