The Strategist

Goldman Sachs expects gas prices in Europe above €100 per MWh before winter

05/04/2023 - 10:03

Goldman Sachs expert told Bloomberg that the price of natural gas in Europe could go to over €100 per MWh before the upcoming winter.

Ivan Radic
Ivan Radic
Before the upcoming winter, the possibility of a rise in the exchange rate for natural gas in Europe above €100 per MWh is "very realistic," Goldman Sachs analyst Samantha Dart told Bloomberg on the sidelines of the Flame gas conference in Amsterdam. According to Bloomberg, the bank originally anticipated a market rally in August but now admits it won't happen until later. The early beginning of cold weather in Europe is the worst possible aspect of this scenario, Dart continued.

A mild winter, attempts to minimize usage, and low Chinese demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) have all contributed to prices for natural gas futures falling to under €40 per MWh, according to Bloomberg. Natural gas futures prices reached a record high in August 2022. It is unknown how resilient these elements will be in the upcoming season, and the agency warned that consumer complacency could lead to higher prices in late 2023 for everyone from industrial plants and power plants to families.

In turn, Vitol Group expects that the market would stay tight until additional LNG supplies start in 2026. According to Stuart Sanders, head of Vitol's short-term LNG trading, the market will be "much more exposed to risk."