The Strategist

Goldman Sachs assesses market risks after COVID-19 vaccine is released

08/07/2020 - 07:42

The emergence of an effective vaccine against the novel coronavirus could change the situation in the stock markets, analysts at Goldman Sachs warn. In their opinion, investors need to prepare for the sale of bonds and the flow of capital from the tech sectors to cyclical ones.

Investors should consider the risk that the emergence of an effective anti-coronavirus vaccine could create volatility in the markets, triggering a sell-off in bonds and a flow of money from tech companies to cyclical companies. Such a warning is given in the report of strategists at Goldman Sachs, writes Bloomberg.

According to experts, stock markets are now underestimating the increase in the likelihood of vaccine approval by the end of November. Analysts note that the aftermath of the US elections and the further spread of the virus could also be key market drivers in the next few months. Getting a vaccine could “challenge market assumptions about both cyclicality and ever-negative real rates,” Goldman Sachs said. They are convinced that such a scenario could support companies with steeper yield curves and challenge the leadership of tech corporations.

If this happens against the backdrop of a change in the US administration, emerging market stocks may benefit, experts say, pointing out that this is only possible if trade policy risks are reduced and US tax risks increase. Goldman Sachs experts suggest that it is too early for investors to prepare for such a development, but they can participate in options trading. For example, some call options on the S&P 500 index, which brings together securities of the largest companies in the US markets from various sectors, still look attractive, analysts say. In their opinion, in the case of an early start of vaccination, the index could grow by more than 11% - up to 3700 points.

In addition, Goldman Sachs analysts continue to believe that the dollar will continue to weaken against many other currencies.