The Strategist

Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley: Global economy is getting ready to recover

05/06/2020 - 03:11

Economists at U.S. investment banks Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley believe that the global economy has begun to show signs of gradual recovery. In the analytical reports for investors, they said that this was due to the gradual weakening of quarantine measures in some regions of the world that were introduced earlier to combat the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic.

“Economic activity is starting to push up from the bottom,” says Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs. “Quarantine and social distance measures are weakening, and many countries have begun to carefully restore economic activity.”

In turn, Morgan Stanley’s chief economist, Chetan Ahya, noted that “the specific indicators we are monitoring give us a reason to believe that the global economy has already reached the lowest point after which the recovery begins.” According to him, the Chinese economy reached its lowest point in February, and the European - in April.

In turn, Mr. Hatzius emphasized that at present the main risk for the recovery of the global economy is the possibility of a second wave of the spread of coronavirus, which cannot be excluded as the quarantine decreases. At the same time, he believes that thanks to large-scale measures by the authorities and private companies, the medical system is now much better prepared to fight this infection than it was before.