The Strategist

Global copper market forecasted to move to surplus in 2024

10/17/2023 - 08:00

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) projects that global production of refined copper may fall short of global consumption in 2023 but will rebound to record levels in 2024.

Tudor Barker
Tudor Barker
By the end of 2022, 461 thousand tons of copper were missing from the global supply. The shortfall of metal will drop to 27, 000 tons in 2023, while the production surplus is predicted to reach 467, 000 tons (in April, the first estimate was projected at 114, 000 tons, the second - 298 thousand tons).

ICSG forecasts that this year's refined copper output is expected to increase by 3.8% to 26.33 million tons. According to the research, technological limitations and maintenance work at manufacturers in the US, Chile, Indonesia, Sweden, and other nations are impeding the ramp-up.

2023 will see a 2% growth in global copper demand to 26.36 million tons; however, when the PRC is excluded, this number will fall by roughly 1% as a result of decreased copper use in the US and Europe. In China, demand is anticipated to increase by 4.3%.

Global copper production is expected to reach 27.5 million tons in 2024, up 4.6% from the previous year. It will increase by 2.7% to 27.1 million tons of consumption.