The Strategist

Fitch improves outlook on U.S. rating

07/11/2022 - 09:16

International rating agency Fitch confirmed the United States' long-term issuer default rating (IDR) at "AAA" while changing the outlook from negative to stable.

The announcement stated that the outlook was changed to stable to reflect "better near-term public debt dynamics" brought on by "strong post-pandemic economic recovery" and "strong government revenues, which Fitch forecasts to expand by 19 percent."

The scale of the economy, high per capita income, and the thriving business environment all contribute to the U.S. grade. The country's GDP is expected to increase by 2.9 percent in 2022. The country's economic development will slow down due to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) tighter monetary policy and high inflation, nevertheless. As a result, the agency anticipates that the US GDP would increase by 1.5% in 2023 and 1.3% in 2024.

Additionally, it is expected that inflation will average 7.8 percent in 2019 and 3.7 percent in 2024. Annual inflation in the nation increased from 8.3 percent a month earlier to 8.6 percent at the end of May, a high not seen since 1981.

After increasing the interest rate by 75 basis points at the conclusion of its June meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to adopt a more aggressive monetary policy, according to Fitch. The Fed's rate will therefore reach 3% by the end of 2023, as predicted by the agency, and it is also anticipated to rise further in the first quarter of 2023.



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