The Strategist

Experts lower forecast for Germany's GDP growth

04/14/2022 - 09:19

Kiel Institute’s expert: German conjuncture is in a complex process of development.

Stefan Kooths, vice president and director of the conjuncture department at the Kiel Institute for World Economics, said at a briefing in Berlin that economic growth in Germany in 2022 will be only 2.7%, while in the fall the forecast was 4.8%, and inflation will grow to 6.1%.

Presenting the joint forecast prepared by leading German economic institutes for the Ministry of Economics, he said that the German conjuncture is in a difficult process of development due to the effects after the lifting of restrictions caused by the pandemic, the coronavirus crisis and the shock effect of the war in Ukraine.

In January, the economy ministry released its own GDP growth forecast for 2022, which was adjusted downward from 4.1 percent to 3.6 percent from a similar forecast made in the fall of 2021. Since January, the agency's forecast has been lowered several times by the expert community.

At the end of March the council for economic development lowered the development forecast for 2022 because of the situation in Ukraine. The GDP growth is now expected at 1.8%, while in November last year the experts of the council forecasted 4.6% growth for the current year. One of Germany's leading economic institutions, IfW Kiel, in mid-March cut its 2022 GDP growth forecast almost in half because of the situation in Ukraine: it now expects growth of 2.1% instead of the projected 4%.