The Strategist

Experts calculate the market value of SpaceX

10/13/2017 - 12:48

Elon Musk founded SpaceX in 2002 with the ambitious goal to colonize Mars someday. Yet, traveling to the Red Planet is still far away, so now the company develops reusable missiles and is currently trying to improve their safe landing.

Meanwhile, its value is growing rapidly. SpaceX is a private company, unlike Tesla, which entered the stock exchange in 2010 and is now estimated at about $ 59.3 billion. At the same time, it was noted more than once that Musk does not plan to conduct an IPO for SpaceX in the near future, so it will not be possible to look at its financial performance soon. Nevertheless, one analyst decided to calculate an approximate estimate of the company, if it suddenly decides to go on the stock exchange. "We know that SpaceX denies preparing for an IPO. However, in view of the forthcoming implementation of projects that require significant amounts of capital, it seems reasonable for us to consider what will happen if the company wants to access capital in public markets," Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas wrote in a recent article. So, the average estimate of the cost of SpaceX, according to Jonas, can number about $ 46 billion, more or less on a par with Tesla. However, the range of the overall assessment is very wide - from $ 5 to $ 120 billion. But where did these figures come from?

Most of SpaceX’s value (50% or more), according to Jonas, is obliged to its satellite business to provide Internet services for global broadband. The analyst expects that SpaceX will launch into space a lot of satellites that will cover the needs in wireless high-speed Internet for the whole world. To date, the company is still in the testing phase. The launch of the first satellites is scheduled for 2019, and the creation of a global network - for the 2024th. Net cost of only one of this business, as reported by Jonas, could amount to about 43 billion dollars.

In addition to Internet satellites, Jonas sees the potential in the current spacecraft launch program. Today, companies that do not have their own capability to launch missiles into space, turn to SpaceX - and that sends their vehicles into orbit for a fee. This business is estimated at about one billion dollars. Let's add both businesses plus the amount of cash available from SpaceX - and the company's estimate will amount to approximately $ 46.018 billion. But if the ideas with Internet satellites or the launch of foreign devices do not work out, then the estimate may drop to 5 billion. Conversely, if SpaceX succeeds, its cost could increase to 120.6 billion dollars. Jonas reiterates that these are just estimates, because SpaceX is privately owned. But despite this, his calculations deserve attention.