The Strategist

China to become the most popular tourist destination

11/08/2018 - 14:41

Already by 2030, China will become the most popular tourist destination in the world, overcoming the current leader, France, follows from a report by Euromonitor International. At the same time, European countries are doing everything to keep the flow of arriving tourists, despite the uncertainty around Brexit, the crisis with migrants, saturation of the market and growing attractiveness of Asian destinations.

Euromonitor International presented a report on the main trends in the development of the global tourism market in the coming years (Megatrends Shaping the Future of Travel) in London yesterday. The company's analysts believe that this year the global tourism market will grow by 5% compared with last year - up to 1.4 billion in all trips in general.

Due to economic growth in the United States, Japan and the Euro zone, the number of tourists from these countries traveling around the world will grow by 11%.

Domestic tourism is growing at a significant pace in Asia. There, the number of trips in 2018 will increase by 10%. The volume of expenditures on tourist trips is also growing, largely thanks to the increasing wealth of the middle class in Asian countries. Due to this, global consumer spending on tours this year will increase by 9%.

Speaking of carriers, experts note a greater activity of low-cost airlines compared to regular airlines - the growth in passenger traffic of budget airlines will increase this year by 7%, for ordinary ones - by 5%, and sales volumes - by 9% and 8%, respectively.

In general, by the end of the year, total sales in the tourist market will amount to almost $ 2.5 trillion. Sales in the offline segment still account for more than 50% of the total, but online sales show strong growth - in 2018–2023 they will be climbing up by 12% per year.

A significant part of the report on the global tourism market is devoted to China. Due to economic growth by 2030, China should become the largest country in terms of the number of tourists leaving, overtaking the current leaders - Germany and the United States. Moreover, by the same 2030, China is expected to become the world leader by the number of arriving tourists, overtaking the current leader, France. Domestic tourism is also actively developing in China - this year the number of such trips will amount to 4.7 billion, then in 2023 it will rise to 6.7 billion.

Speaking of European countries in the tourism market, experts at Euromonitor International use the concept of "resilience".

Despite the economic and political uncertainty, the crisis with migrants and the terrorist attacks of recent years, the European tourism industry continues to show good performance, the report says.

The report cites initiatives by the Dutch authorities as examples of adapting to changing conditions and changing trends to attract new tourists. As part of the “balanced city” strategy, the Amsterdam administration, for example, wants to change the image of its city as a “party place” and attract attention of more tourists to its cultural attractions.

Also, the fate of European tourism depends on the form of Brexit. Now the volume of outbound tourism in Britain is $ 11 billion. According to forecasts of Euromonitor, in the case of a soft Brexit, this volume may even increase. However, the hard Brexit can hit not only British tourists, but also countries of continental Europe, such as Spain, which are popular among British citizens. British tourists give this country 21% of all receipts from foreign tourists; in the case of a tough Brexit, the decline in tourist flow from Britain to Spain can lead to a decline in revenues to Spain by $ 747 million, Euromonitor analysts calculated.