The Strategist

BofA: Investors are increasing share of cash, changing regional preferences.

07/15/2020 - 09:57

Threat of the second wave of the novel coronavirus will not prevent recovery of the global economy, according to major international investors. However, the difficult epidemiological situation in the world and the lack of a vaccine can lead to a slower exit from the recession in the first half of the year. Therefore, managers are increasing their shares of cash in portfolios, and also change regional preferences.

public domain pictures
public domain pictures
A July survey of portfolio managers of Bank of America showed that investor confidence in global economic growth had strengthened by mid-summer. Representatives of 210 funds, who manage assets worth $ 607 billion in total, took part in it.

According to the survey, number of managers who are confident that in the next 12 months the pace of economic growth will accelerate is 72% higher than the number of those who expect a decline.

However, fewer managers are waiting for a quick economic recovery. Only 14% of respondents expect a V-shaped trajectory of economic growth, while a month earlier they were 18%. Most managers expect a longer, U- or W-shaped economic recovery (44% and 30% of respondents respectively).

According to the survey, the average share of cash increased from 4.7% to 4.9%. At the same time, the number of managers whose shares in portfolios exceeded the indicative level was only 5% higher than the number of those with lower shares. This is 1 percentage point (pp) lower than a month ago. Careful managers began to invest in shares of American companies. The number of managers whose weight of such stocks in portfolios exceeded the indicative level exceeded by 21% the number of those who had it lower. A month earlier there were 1 pp more buyers.

This situation supports the demand for shares of European companies, as well as issuers of developing countries. According to the survey, the number of investors in whose portfolios the shares of European companies exceed the indicative level was 16% higher than the number of those whose share was lower. Over the month, the indicator grew by 9 pp.