The Strategist

Ukraine-A Turmoil in World Politics

03/12/2015 - 19:20

The geopolitical tensions between Ukraine and Russia has sent ripple impacts across the globe.

The start of year 2015 has proved rocky for the European democracy. This was mainly led by Eurozone crisis and rise of discontent within its political system that gave way to different forms of populism. The trade dispute triggered Russia’s conflict with Ukraine.

With the withdrawal of government forces by Ukraine, the battle ended on midnight 15th February 2015, after a long period of violence that killed almost 6000 people. Despite the ceasefire deal signed at Minsk after discussion between Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France, a peace settlement in Ukraine still remains distant. Still, many world leaders are hopeful and positive that the ceasefire sustains and Ukraine starts to rebuild itself. The major reason behind this outbreak of hostilities was Moscow’s desire that Kiev should join Eurasian Customs Union, led by Russia as against the European Union Association Agreement. It seems to be very difficult for Ukraine as nearly 25% of its exports go to the Eurasian European Union while the other 25% of its export revenue comes from European Union.

Few Key Points of Agreement:
  • Ceasefire to begin at midnight 15th February 2015
  • Withdrawal of heavy weapons from the front line in a time span of 2 weeks beginning from 17th February 2015
  • Pulling out foreign militant from Ukraine’s territory
  • Lifting restrictions from affected areas of Ukraine
  • Forgiveness for prisoners who were part of the war
The US and Europe are likely to assist for the recovery of Ukraine’s economy. In addition they need to ensure that the constitutional changes stated by Minsk ceasefire agreement shall not stop its integration into EU.

Russian President Vladimir Putin shocked entire Europe by annexing Ukraine’s Crimea and supporting rebellions in the eastern part of Ukraine. However, Russia denied all the allegations. This undeclared war disturbed the long period of peace that was established in Europe post World War II. The escalation of conflicts between Ukraine and Pro-Russian separatists claimed an increasing number of lives. The Ukrane’s conflict has widened and deepened the gap between European Union and Russia. However, it is expected that EU sanctions will not be lifted soon and it will be difficult to estimate the impact on Russian business earlier.

Eventhough Ukraine is not the heart of international geopolitics, yet it signaled the initiation of a new period in politics across the globe. After losing the partnership of Russia and gaining the responsibility of Ukraine, Europe is however uncertain about its future moves.

Given, Russia’s internal troubles and territorial disputes, Vladimir Putin took higher risk by backing the rebellions in Ukraine. However, rebels at Donetsk and Luhansk region of Ukraine did not comply with the terms of ceasefire agreement. Hence, the officials from Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France decided to ramp up the numbers of OSCE (Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe) monitors to 1,000. As a result of lack of information about landmines and imposition of third party restrictions, OSCE reported that their mission’s capabilities are limited the monitors are denied full access. Moreover, IMF assigned $17.5 billion to Ukraine which includes an amount of $5 billion in order to stabilize the conflict across the nation.