The Strategist

UNCTAD: World trade growth may exceed 20% in 2021

12/01/2021 - 08:07

World trade in 2021 could grow by 23% from 2020, according to a UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report released on Tuesday.

"World trade is expected to reach around $28 trillion in 2021, an increase of 23% compared to 2020," the report reads.

UNCTAD expects trade in goods to reach a record high of $22 trillion in 2021. Trade in services in 2021 is estimated at about $6 trillion, still slightly below pre-pandemic levels.

The positive trend in international trade in 2021 is largely the result of a strong recovery in demand due to the removal of coronavirus restrictions, economic stimulus packages and rising commodity prices, UNCTAD notes.

However, the outlook for 2022 remains very uncertain due to several factors, including logistics disruptions and high fuel prices, semiconductor shortages, and ongoing geopolitical tensions between some major economies.