The Strategist

OPEC worsens global oil demand forecast for 2021

11/12/2021 - 08:22

OPEC has worsened its forecast for global oil demand in 2021, now expecting it to rise by 5.7 million bpd instead of 5.8 million bpd a month earlier, and still expects growth of 4.2 million bpd in 2022, the organisation said in a November report.

"Growth in global oil demand is revised downward by about 0.16 million bpd from last month's estimate, to 5.7 million bpd," the report said. The revision is mainly due to slower-than-expected demand growth in China and India in the third quarter of 2021.

OPEC had forecast demand growth of 5.8 million bpd this year in September and 6 million bpd in August.

Global oil demand in 2021 is estimated by OPEC to be 96.4 million bpd.

"In 2022, global oil demand growth is expected to remain unchanged from the previous month's estimate of 4.2 million bpd," the report reads.

Total global demand in 2022 is projected by the organisation to be 100.6 million bpd, about 0.5 million above 2019 levels.

"A slight upward revision (in oil demand - ed.) in OECD countries in Europe, driven by improving economic conditions in some European countries, was offset by weaker growth in industrial fuel demand in OECD countries in the Americas and Latin America," OPEC noted.