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The estimate has been slightly reduced because of the conflict in the Middle East and because of the interruptions in energy supply through the Strait of Hormuz. If the conflict persists, the organization's analysts predict that global GDP growth will drop to 2.1% this year, and several countries may experience a recession. Although there were no major changes in forecasts for the biggest economies during the June review, the researchers think that high energy prices are already raising inflation, reducing consumer spending, and lowering business confidence.
The OECD anticipates that the rate of global economic growth will decrease to 2.8% this year, down from 3.4% in 2025, and then rise to 3.1% in 2027. This baseline forecast is included in the organization's June review. In the spring, the OECD anticipated a GDP growth rate of 2.9% for 2026 and 3% for 2027. Global trade is expected to expand by 3.1% this year and 2.9% next year, continuing from the 5% growth recorded in 2025.
The conflict in the Middle East was commonly mentioned as the primary source of uncertainty. Based on OECD estimates, at the start of the year, global economic growth was driven by investments in artificial intelligence, more relaxed monetary policies in developed nations, and a decrease in trade-related conflicts. However, disruptions in the supply of energy through the Strait of Hormuz and damage to energy-related infrastructure have resulted in higher inflationary pressures and a decline in both business and consumer confidence.
A quick change in this trend is unlikely even if a peaceful agreement is reached: rebuilding infrastructure and ensuring continuous supply of energy products and other goods will require several months.
If the talks continue for another few years until 2027, the growth of the global economy will slow down even more. In 2026, the growth rate is expected to be 2.1%, and by 2027, it will drop further to 1.8%. Some countries may face recession.
source: oecd.org
The OECD anticipates that the rate of global economic growth will decrease to 2.8% this year, down from 3.4% in 2025, and then rise to 3.1% in 2027. This baseline forecast is included in the organization's June review. In the spring, the OECD anticipated a GDP growth rate of 2.9% for 2026 and 3% for 2027. Global trade is expected to expand by 3.1% this year and 2.9% next year, continuing from the 5% growth recorded in 2025.
The conflict in the Middle East was commonly mentioned as the primary source of uncertainty. Based on OECD estimates, at the start of the year, global economic growth was driven by investments in artificial intelligence, more relaxed monetary policies in developed nations, and a decrease in trade-related conflicts. However, disruptions in the supply of energy through the Strait of Hormuz and damage to energy-related infrastructure have resulted in higher inflationary pressures and a decline in both business and consumer confidence.
A quick change in this trend is unlikely even if a peaceful agreement is reached: rebuilding infrastructure and ensuring continuous supply of energy products and other goods will require several months.
If the talks continue for another few years until 2027, the growth of the global economy will slow down even more. In 2026, the growth rate is expected to be 2.1%, and by 2027, it will drop further to 1.8%. Some countries may face recession.
source: oecd.org
