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Erik Christensen
The analysts remarked that the rise in Middle Eastern tensions and the reduction of expected oil supplies from the Persian Gulf to under 45% of pre-war figures have driven oil prices up.
A research note from Goldman Sachs highlights that this does not represent the bank's baseline scenario.
Goldman Sachs' baseline scenario, considering reduced tensions in the Middle East, predicts that Brent crude oil prices will hit $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 and $75 the next year. Analysts pointed out that the threats to the predictions are "tilted towards the upside" due to the disturbances in shipping within the Strait of Hormuz, and potentially in the Red Sea too.
On February 28, a conflict was initiated by the US and Israel against Iran. Amid this context, navigation in the Strait of Hormuz was nearly obstructed, resulting in an increase in worldwide oil prices.
On June 17, the United States and Iran electronically finalized a memorandum of understanding designed to conclude the war and to open the Strait of Hormuz. In early July, the US restarted attacks on Iran, pointing to Tehran's assaults on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
US Central Command reported that the attacks in Iran focused on military command posts, launch sites, and air defense systems within Iran. Tehran, in response, targeted American military installations in Kuwait and Jordan.
source: bloomberg.com
A research note from Goldman Sachs highlights that this does not represent the bank's baseline scenario.
Goldman Sachs' baseline scenario, considering reduced tensions in the Middle East, predicts that Brent crude oil prices will hit $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 and $75 the next year. Analysts pointed out that the threats to the predictions are "tilted towards the upside" due to the disturbances in shipping within the Strait of Hormuz, and potentially in the Red Sea too.
On February 28, a conflict was initiated by the US and Israel against Iran. Amid this context, navigation in the Strait of Hormuz was nearly obstructed, resulting in an increase in worldwide oil prices.
On June 17, the United States and Iran electronically finalized a memorandum of understanding designed to conclude the war and to open the Strait of Hormuz. In early July, the US restarted attacks on Iran, pointing to Tehran's assaults on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
US Central Command reported that the attacks in Iran focused on military command posts, launch sites, and air defense systems within Iran. Tehran, in response, targeted American military installations in Kuwait and Jordan.
source: bloomberg.com
