The Strategist

Indian aviation market will skyrocket by 2038, minister says

05/21/2018 - 12:58

Indian Minister of State for Civil Aviation Minister Jayant Sinha is confident that by 2038 his country will be the second market in the world in terms of the number of passenger flights. By that time, airlines will carry out about 1 billion flights a year, which will allow the Indian market to bypass the United States. The growth rate of the local air market is indeed impressive. Over the past four years, the number of flights in India has doubled and reached 200 million. However, the Indian authorities are likely to find it difficult to keep this trend as the country is already struggling to meet the growing demand for air transportation.

Santanu Mondal
Santanu Mondal
The Minister of Aviation of India Jayant Sinha is very optimistic about forecasts on development of the country's civil air transportation market. According to him, India should reach the level of 1 billion flights a year by 2038. This will allow the country to bypass the US and become the second largest market in the world, behind only China. According to the forecasts of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), China should surpass the US market by 2022.

India's civilian transportation market is indeed experiencing rapid growth. Only in the last four years the number of flights in the country doubled up to 200 million. Growth of the aviation market in India was 17.4% last year. For comparison, growth on the second market in terms of development - Chinese - reaches 13.5%.

However, against the backdrop of the industry’s growth, flight delays and cases when aircraft nearly crashed against each other became a common occurrence for Indian airlines. For example, last month, a third of Mumbai's flights were delayed. Aviation cannot keep up with the rapid growth in demand: there are not enough air traffic controllers, crews, pilots and, finally, airports.

The Indian authorities plan to build 50 new airports and helipads across the country within the next five years. Another 50 will be built in the next decade. And Indian airlines are massively buying up aircraft - more than 900 airliners are on the list of orders.

Nevertheless, IATA does not believe that the Indian authorities will be able to maintain the current growth rate, while maintaining a proper level of flight safety. According to the forecasts of the International Association, 478 million flights will be carried out in India by the year 2036.