The Strategist

IEA notes improved sentiments in oil market

06/17/2020 - 06:39

The first half of 2020 ends optimistically for oil producers. The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects that demand in the second quarter will not fall as much as expected, while oil supply will be reduced (by almost 12 million barrels per day in May). Participants in the OPEC + transaction over the past month reduced supplies by 89% of the adopted plan, including the main suppliers - Russia and Saudi Arabia - fulfilled their obligations by almost 100%. In addition, production in the United States, which did not participate in the deal, decreased markedly. These factors are driving oil prices up: in May, the price of a barrel of Brent rose from $25 to $38.

Oil demand in 2020 will decrease by 8.1 million barrels per day (bpd) - to 91.7 million bpd, which is a record annual decline. However, compared with May, the IEA’s June forecast for the year has been improved (a month ago, a fall of 8.6 million bps was expected). The forecast for a drop in demand in the second quarter is 17.8 million bpd (19.9 million bpd a month earlier).

Next year, oil consumption will increase by 5.7 million bpd (up to 97.4 million bpd), the IEA expects. But it will still be 2.4 million bpd less than the level of 2019. The reduction in demand for jet fuel and kerosene will be significant until 2022, the agency warned. Nevertheless, the IEA notes that the first half of 2020 "ends optimistically: the drop in demand due to quarantine turned out to be more modest"; this, however, does not eliminate the emergence of new risks.

Meanwhile, the total oil supply on the market in May fell by 11.8 million bpd to 88.8 million bpd. In June, supplies may be reduced by another 2.4 million bpd to 86.4 million bpd to a minimum since 2010.

On average, for the year, deliveries in 2020 will decrease by 7.2 million bps, and in the next year they will grow, but only by 1.8 million bps, according to the IEA.

Participants in the OPEC + deal reduced production in May by 9.4 million bpd (Saudi Arabia - by 3.7 million bpd, to 8.5 million bpd, Russia - by 1.95 million bpd, to 8.56 million bpd, the UAE - by 1.5 million bpd, up to 2.5 million bpd).