The Strategist

IATA: Air industry losses will amount to $11.6B in 2022

10/05/2021 - 08:18

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has issued a forecast for the global air transport market in 2022. The association expects industry losses to amount to $11.6bn, which is 4.5 times less than the current year's total of $51.8bn.

Earlier IATA estimated losses for 2021 at $47.7 billion. It also revised upwards the losses incurred by global air carriers in 2020 - from the previous estimate of $126.4 billion to $137.7 billion. Based on revised estimates and projections of losses in 2020-2022, IATA notes that the total industry losses from the COVID-19 pandemic over this period will be $201 billion.

IATA also expects passenger airline demand to account for 40% of demand in pre-pandemic 2019 and 61% in 2022.

At the end of the current year, total passenger traffic will be 2.3 billion and will rise to 3.4 billion in 2022 - the same level as in 2014, but significantly lower than the 4.5 billion in 2019. At the same time, demand for air cargo services will already exceed 2019 levels by 7.9% this year and by 13.2% next year.

"The resilience of the domestic air travel market suggests that people have not lost the desire to travel. However, cross-border travel is being held back by coronavirus restrictions, uncertainty and (organisational) difficulties. More and more governments see vaccination as a way out of this situation. We fully agree that there should be no travel restrictions for people who have been vaccinated," says IATA head Willie Walsh. "In fact, freedom of movement is a strong incentive to vaccinate. Governments need to work together and do everything in their power to get vaccines to everyone who wants them.