The Strategist

HSBC: US will face recession in 2023 and EU in 2024

06/28/2023 - 11:08

Recession might start in the United States in the fourth quarter of this year, and in Europe – in 2024, according to HSBC experts quoted by CNBC TV network.

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According to HSBC's semi-annual prediction, a number of European economies are currently exhibiting "warning signs." Analysts claim that this means that current movements on the stock and debt markets are not reflected in fiscal and monetary policy.

While some parts of the economy are exhibiting signs of resilience to a recession, according to Joseph Little, Chief Strategic Analyst at HSBC Asset Management, the current imbalance is suggestive of "high recession risks." However, despite a slight delay, Europe is exhibiting a dynamic that is similar to that of the United States.

The expert stated that "we are already going through something akin to a mild recession, and against this backdrop we are seeing more frequent company defaults." "Our scenario predicts that the recession will be similar to that in the early 1990s, with the main forecast being a decrease in GDP of about 1-2%," says Mr. Little.