The Strategist

Fitch Downgraded the Forecast for Global GDP Growth

03/17/2015 - 15:17

The economic recovery in developed countries continue to slow down on the background of the recession in Russia and Brazil.

International rating agency Fitch downgraded the outlook for global GDP growth in 2015 by 0.2 percentage points (pp) - up to 2.7% with an expected 2.9% in December.

The forecast recovery of the global economy in 2016 is left at 3%, according to agency ‘Global Economic Outlook (GEO).

Thus, Fitch expects global GDP growth will accelerate compared to 2.5% in 2014.

Increase in the rate of economic growth this year will be achieved by reduction of the major developed economies, says the survey.

According to the agency, all three of the major developed economies of the world - the US, the eurozone and Japan - will show accelerated growth that will be marked the first time since 2010.

Meanwhile, economic growth in developed countries will continue to slow down on the background of the recession in Russia and Brazil, as well as the structural adjustment of the Chinese economy, the report says.

Revision of the forecast for global GDP growth for the current year downwards compared with the December estimate reflects the deterioration of expectations for emerging markets, Fitch notes.
Fitch has maintained the US GDP growth forecasts for 2015 and 2016 at 3.1% and 3%, respectively expecting accelerate recovery compared with the level in 2014 (2.4%). Private consumption will remain a key driver of economic growth that will support low oil prices, the increase in disposable income, and the strengthening of the labor market, the report says.

Strengthening of the US dollar will restrain the performance of US exports, Fitch reports.
Eurozone GDP growth forecast for 2015 increased by 0.3 percentage points - Up to 1.4% in 2016 - by 0.2 percentage points to 1.7%. In 2014, the region's economy grew by 0.9%.
The sharp drop in oil prices, the launch of the European Central Bank (ECB) program of quantitative easing (QE), the weakening of euro, as well as improved confidence in the economy support the forecasts of gradual strengthening of the eurozone economic" -  the review says.

However, the agency's experts warn that the pace of growth of the economy of the region will remain moderate compared with other major developed countries, the effectiveness of the QE program is in doubt, and the economy has yet to gain traction.

Japanese economy will return to growth rates above the long-term trend - 1.3% in 2015, predicts Fitch. In 2016, the rise is expected to accelerate to 1.5% due to the weakening of the yen, as well as higher wages.

The growth of the UK economy will remain strong, but slow compared to the year 2014, the Agency’s analysts predict. GDP, as estimated by Fitch, will increase by 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016 after rising by 2.6% in 2014.

- Emerging markets as a whole are experiencing a weakening recovery, and in some of the key developing countries, there is a recession, - the review says.

The economic recovery in emerging markets, who reached the peak of 6.9% in 2010, is expected to be 3.6% in 2015 and 4.2% in 2016.

Agency experts predict a deep recession in Russia, according to their estimates, in 2015, Russia's GDP will shrink by 4.5% in 2016 - by 1%.

Brazilian economy has been in recession since mid-2014 and is expected to decline by 0.4% this year. In 2016, Brazil's GDP growth of 1.5%.

- The gradual slowing of economic growth in China is structural given ongoing reforms in the country, and we keep growth forecasts China's GDP for 2015 and 2016 at 6.8% and 6.5%, the review noted.
India, according to Fitch, is the only one of the BRIC countries, where GDP growth accelerated. This year, the Indian economy will grow by 8%, and next year by 8.3%.

This year, the inflation in the major developed countries in the world will be only 0.3%, the rating agency experts expect.  -