The Strategist

Boeing expects demand for 39.6 thousand new aircraft, mostly in Asia

07/11/2016 - 15:52

Boeing forecasts demand for 39.620 thousand new aircraft over the next 20 years, which is 4.1% higher than expected in the previous year. The company presented its Current Market Outlook on the first day of the international airshow at Farnborough, estimating total cost of the new aircraft at $ 5.9 trillion.

Aero Icarus
Aero Icarus
"Despite the recent events that have affected the financial markets, the aviation sector will continue to observe the long-term growth by doubling the civilian aircraft fleet - said Randy Tinseth, Vice President of Marketing for Boeing Commercial Airplanes. - We expect the annual passenger growth to be 4.8% over the next two decades."

The narrow-body aircraft segment will be the most durable due to growth in low-cost airlines and growing markets. According to the forecast, this segment would demand up to 28.140 thousand new aircraft, which is 5% higher than forecast for the last year, according to the document.

"Clearly, the new Boeing MAX 8 and 200 MAX will constitute the core of the single-aisle market, just like their predecessor 737-800. Already now, planes of this size are accounting for 76% of the current global portfolio of orders for single-aisle models, and in this segment, our products have a clear advantage."

According to the forecast, in the wide-body segment will require 9,100 thousand aircraft with a potential surge in demand for aerial vehicle replacement for the period from 2021 to 2028 years.

Boeing forecasts a further shift from very large to small and medium-sized wide-body aircraft such as the 787, 777 and 777X.

The volume of freight traffic market is expected to grow by 4.2%, which would require 930 new and 1,440 thousand converted freighters.

According to the forecast, Asia will be the demand leader, requesting 15 130 aircraft. The region is followed by North America (8330 vehicles), and the third (7570 aircraft) falls on Europe. Africa is closing the aircraft demand rating with a number 1150 pieces, and the CIS countries (1170 new vehicles) are just a little above).

Meanwhile, the British government signed a supply contract with Boeing. Within the agreement, the company will deliver nine anti-aircraft worth 3 billion pounds (3.9 billion dollars).

The contract, concluded for the next 10 years, obliges Boeing to supply the UK with nine P-8A Poseidon aircraft, designed to find and destroy submarines. The contract’s amount also includes cost of staff training and aircraft maintenance. 

In addition, Boeing is to fund construction works at an air base in Lossiemouth, Scotland. The future infrastructure, required for deployment of new aircraft, is expected to cost 100 million pounds.
P-8A aircraft is designed to patch a breach occurred in the UK defense capability in 2010. Back then, the country announced the fleet retirement mostly aimed at Nimrod aircraft, which were taken into service in the late 1960s.

British Prime Minister David Cameron announced the deal on Monday before opening the international air show in Farnborough. According to him, purchase of the aircraft demonstrates that, despite Brexit, Britain is open for business.

"Whatever uncertainty our country is facing, I want everyone to know: Britain will remain a world leader in both the military and civil aircraft," - said Cameron.

In total, thanks to the cooperation of the British government and Boeing, the country will get about 2 million new jobs.