The Strategist

UN agency forecasts new timeline for labour market recovery after pandemic

06/03/2021 - 04:48

The UN International Labour Organisation has concluded that the global employment market will not recover until 2023. According to the agency, there will be 205 million unemployed worldwide next year.
The International Labour Organisation (ILO) has warned that the rate of job creation will not catch up with the pandemic job cuts until at least 2023. The UN agency stated this in its new study. 

The agency said the global labour market is facing an uneven recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.

The ILO predicts that around 100 million jobs will be created around the world this year. The organisation attributes this to businesses getting back to work after lockdowns. But despite the recovery from the pandemic, there will still be a deficit of 75 million jobs in 2021 compared to pre-pandemic levels. Next year, it will drop to 23 million.

The ILO warns that this rate of job growth will not be sufficient to provide the necessary opportunities for young professionals just entering the labour market. This in turn will reduce their chances of finding long-term employment, decent pay and development prospects in the workplace.

Despite unprecedented measures taken by many governments to save jobs, there has been a dramatic drop in employment across the world, exacerbating existing inequalities and threatening long-term negative impacts, the organisation warns.

The ILO says there will be 205 million unemployed worldwide in 2022 - well above the pre-pandemic level (187 million in 2019). The organisation estimates an unemployment rate of 5.7%, the highest since 2013, excluding the pandemic, the FT notes.

Unemployment in high-income countries will fall from 6.8% in 2020 to 5% in 2022 "thanks to unprecedented political support and privileged access to vaccines", says the ILO. In low-income countries, the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged from last year's level of 5.2% by next year.

The labour market is recovering fastest in North America due to a combination of rapid vaccination and large fiscal stimulus packages. In Latin America and the Caribbean, however, the job recovery will be sluggish due to the disappearance of a large number of companies and the slow pace of new business.


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