The Strategist

IMF expects growth of the world's major economies over next two years

01/26/2022 - 08:35

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday lowered its forecast for US economic growth for 2022 to 4% from 5.2%, while raising it for 2023 to 2.6% from 2.2%, the fund's report showed. Meanwhile, for 2023, the US GDP growth forecast in the report is more positive at 2.6% compared to the 2.2% announced in October 2021.

The fund also reported that it expects the eurozone economy to grow by 3.9% by the end of the current year (down 0.4 percentage point from the October report), with a slowdown to 2.5% next year (previously 2% was expected).

At the same time, the largest economies of the currency bloc will rather lag behind the average pace, according to the document. For example, German GDP growth is expected to be 3.8% and 2.5%, France 3.5% and 1.8%, Italy 3.8% and 2.2% and Spain 5.8% and 3.8% in 2022 and 2023 respectively. From the UK, which is not part of the euro zone, the IMF expects the economy to grow by 4.7% and 2.2%.

Based on last year's results, the IMF expects eurozone GDP to grow by 5.2%.

The IMF also lowered its forecast for Chinese economic growth by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8% in 2022 and by 0.1 percentage points to 5.2% in 2023.

The IMF experts describe the slowdown of the Chinese economy, which is expected to grow by 8.1% in 2021, as one of the factors of deterioration of the global conjuncture with the most sensitive consequences for exporters of raw materials and developing markets. They see one of the main challenges for China as the credit crunch for construction companies and a likely slowdown in real estate investment growth.