The Strategist

Fitch affirms the United States’ rating at AA +

03/05/2024 - 06:29

Fitch confirmed the United States' foreign currency issuer default ratings of "AA+" for both the short and long term.

The agency released a press release stating that the prognosis is "stable".

"F1+" short-term ratings were confirmed.

According to estimates by Fitch experts, the state budget deficit in 2023 will be 8.8% of GDP, a substantial increase from the previous year's 3.7% deficit at year's end. There has been a notable decline in revenues, increased interest expenses, and a worsening of state and municipal government budgets. The deficit is predicted to decrease to 8% of GDP in 2024 as a result of growing income and certain spending reductions.

Fitch projects that during the next ten years, the average interest rate set by the Federal Reserve will remain higher than 3% annually.

"Despite slowing inflation, we believe the Fed will remain cautious given the resilience of the economy and forecast that the first rate cut will occur in June 2024," the paper stated.

By the end of 2025, the government debt-to-GDP ratio is predicted to have increased from 113.5% at the end of the previous year to 120.7%. This means that the debt level is double the average for issuers with 'AA' ratings, which at the end of 2023 was 50.6%.



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