The Strategist

Experts predict inflation growth in the United States during Trump's reign

11/15/2016 - 15:03

The US economy is likely to enter a new era with advent of Donald Trump’s rule, the US President-elect, writes The Wall Street Journal.

The Republican’s policy may lead to increased rates of economic recovery in the US, higher interest rates and inflation, as well as emergence of new risks, including threat of an international trade war, noted experts interviewed by the newspaper.

Expectations of accelerating economic growth are associated with Trump's pre-election statements about plans to cut taxes and increase investment in infrastructure. These measures usually involve significant amounts of fiscal stimulus.

Consensus forecast of analysts, conducted by the WSJ, suggests growth of US GDP by 2.2% in 2017, and 2.3% in 2018, when positive effects of fiscal stimulus will become more noticeable. In the past 12 months, the rate of US GDP growth has been hovering around 1.5%.

Inflation, according to experts, will be 2.2% in 2017 and 2.4% in 2018. Thus, the outlook is promising the first period of sustained inflation above 2% since 2007-2009.

The data are based on a survey of 57 academics, business people and financiers, polled in the period from 9 to 11 November.

Experts have somewhat improved forecasts for GDP growth, inflation and interest rates both for 2017 and for 2018, compared to the October survey, writes the WSJ. Yet, the analysts noted that their forecasts are preliminary.

Most economists believe that tax cuts, especially if not accompanied by spending cuts, will support the United States economic growth in the short term.

Republican congressional leaders are in favor of tax cuts and deregulation. However, it is unclear whether they support plans of Donald Trump to limit immigration and trade. Their opinion on a sharp increase in spending on infrastructure is also unknown.

About 43% of economists, surveyed by the WSJ, pointed out that possibility of trade wars could be a major risk to the US economy.

US introduction of import tariffs on foreign products will lead to a spiraling increase in trade barriers, rise in import prices, as well as contraction of markets for US exporters, experts say.

Experts assessed probability of recession in the US economy at 20% over the next 12 months. These expectations have decreased slightly over the past three months, yet they are still higher than in the previous year (14%), writes the WSJ.

Chances of the Fed’s rate hike before the end of 2016 increased to 84% from 76% before the presidential election.

According to experts, traders will spend the coming week in efforts to understand Trump’s future priorities in domestic and foreign policy.

Anthony Scaramucci, Advisor to President-elect on the economy, wrote an article for the Financial Times, where he claimed that Trump is ready for a conversation before imposing imports restrictions. "Mr. Trump believe in free but fair trade - said Scaramucci. - Tariffs are not necessary if agreements of the World Trade Organization and NAFTA are duly implemented."


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