The Strategist

Eight gloomy predictions from Bloomberg

12/21/2017 - 14:35

Bloomberg agency published the "Pessimist's Guide" - eight scenarios of the most dangerous events that can occur before 2028. Bloomberg emphasizes that the presented scenarios are not forecasts, but "provocative ideas" that will make you think about how quickly the world changes.

The end of the oil era

Mass production of cheap electric vehicles will begin in 2018 thanks to the breakthrough in the development of batteries. In turn, OPEC, fearing for the future of energy, will "hit the brakes" in oil production and the price of raw materials will remain at $ 50 per barrel, the agency predicts. In 2020, the IPO of Saudi Aramco will be very successful, and the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, will become the king. While the monarch is spending money on creating a "city of the future in the desert", the rest of the world will monitor the spread of electric vehicles, and the price of oil will fall to $ 40 per barrel by the end of the year.

In another year - in 2021 - world economies from Japan to the United States will face difficulties due to sudden changes in the automotive market. The cost of oil will drop to $ 20 per barrel, which will have the greatest impact on Riyadh and Moscow. Riots will take hold of Russian plants, and an economic crisis will begin in Saudi Arabia in 2024. The price of oil in the meantime will fall to $ 10. In another four years - in 2028 - Saudi Arabia will refuse to create a "city of the future", and OPEC will be disbanded, sums up Bloomberg. 

The second term of Trump

According to this scenario, there will be an economic boom in the United States in 2018, and in 2020 Trump will "barely" be re-elected for a new presidential term due to the "disorganization of the democrats". A year later, Trump will finally cancel the Obamacare system, but will not offer an alternative, Bloomberg writes. Under this scenario, the US healthcare system will fall in chaos, and the stock market will turn into a bubble. In 2021, the US economy will find itself a deep recession, the agency said.

In 2024, TV presenter Jimmy Kimmel will be elected president, who will represent the national health reform, Bloomberg writes: but in large American cities riots will erupt, and by 2028, disenchanted voters in politics will prefer alternative parties to the Democrats and Republicans.

Fake news will kill Facebook

In 2018, congressional elections in the US will show that Facebook and other technology companies cannot stop the spread of disinformation. A year later, the social network will hire thousands of people to identify suspicious content, but it will not be possible to "figure out intruders", says the scenario: more countries "Will follow the example of Russia" and create "troll factories" as a new weapon of the special services. Already by 2025, no one will know what is true and what is not, and Facebook, Twitter and Google will cease to exist in their current form, the agency writes.

Bitcoin will replace banks

According to the next Bloomberg scenario, in 2018 a regional US bank will report that a cyber attack has destroyed all of its systems, and all deposits have disappeared. While the global regulators will be reassuring worried investors, Bitcoin’s price will exceed $ 40,000, and gold will jump too due to uncertainty about the security of the financial system. Three years later, Venezuela, Greece and several African countries will recognize Bitcoin, and its price will reach $ 100,000 by that time, the agency said. In 2023, hackers will introduce the Trojan Worm Hole virus into banks around the world. And in five years, many commercial banks will collapse. The global financial system will be replaced by a hodgepodge of crypto-currencies and payment systems such as Alipay, writes Bloomberg. Bitcoin’s price in that year, according to this scenario, will reach $ 1 million.

North Korea will push the world to the brink of war

This scenario suggests that the DPRK in 2018 will push the world to the brink of war. Pyongyang's launched missile will land 20 miles from the West Coast of the United States, but Trump will decide not to respond. In 2019, North Korean television will announce Kim Jong-un’s sudden death from a heart attack. The new regime" will agree to "nuclear disarmament", and people will start talking about the golden era in relations between the US and China, the agency writes. In 2020, Trump will announce that the United States would begin selling military equipment to China, and five years later, on the last day of Trump's tenure as president of the United States, Chinese leader Xi Jinping will announce plans to annex Taiwan to the country. In response, Japan will promise to begin developing nuclear weapons and sign a military agreement with China. In 2028, when Trump and Xi will meet to celebrate the reunification of Taiwan with the mainland, Japan will declare its ability to place a nuclear warhead on an intercontinental ballistic missile.

Socialists seizing power in Britain

According to this scenario, negotiations on Brexit will get out of control, Theresa May will leave the post of Prime Minister of Great Britain, and Labor leader Jeremy Corbin will win unexpected elections will. In 2019 Britain will leave the European Union, and Corbin will accuse the Conservatives of deceiving the nation: Brexit's price will be higher than the promised price of 80 billion euros instead of 50 billion euros.

By 2022, Corbin will increase taxes to promote the socialist agenda, and rich bankers will "start flight" from London. A year later, Corbin will be reelected by an overwhelming majority of votes, the agency notes: but at the same time, inflation in the UK will get out of control, the public debt will exceed 100% of the country's GDP; by 2028 the fears of default will increase.

Fight of generations will destroy Europe

In 2018 French pensioners will come out with protests against President Emmanuel Macron's attempt to reform the pension system. Meanwhile, the parliamentary elections in Italy will reveal a sharp split between the generations, it follows from the scenario. Two years later, the working-age population in Europe will decline, and Portugal, Italy, Spain and Greece will plunge into a financial crisis. In 2024, Catalonia will re-vote for independence from Spain, and Madrid, which cannot afford military spending, will have to agree with this. In 2028, according to the scenario, Belgium will be divided into three parts, and a low birth rate and early retirement will lead to the fact that in most of Europe two workers will support one pensioner.

China will start a trade war

According to this scenario, in 2021, China will invest billions of dollars in subsidizing the full transition to electric vehicles by 2028. Trump will increase tax incentives for oil companies and old automakers, and will refuse to join the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, which regulates measures to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide . In 2024, the Chinese authorities will be pondering how to force the US to change its position. In particular, they will begin to impose trade sanctions on countries that do not meet the goal of reducing harmful emissions into the atmosphere, the agency writes. In 2028, Kimmel, the new President of the United States, will not be able to force the congress to rally on the issue of emission reductions. In turn, China will impose sanctions against the US, Australia and Russia and the world will face the first climatic trade war, Bloomberg reports.