The Strategist

OPEC retains global oil demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026



12/12/2025 - 02:03



OPEC has kept its prediction for oil demand increase in 2025 at 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) and at 1.38 million bpd in 2026, as stated in the organization's monthly report.



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In the most recent report, specialists kept their total oil demand projections steady: 103.84 million bpd for 2024, 105.14 million bpd for 2025, and 106.52 million bpd for 2026.

Projections for global oil consumption by quarter for the current year have also stayed the same: for the first quarter, it stands at 104.26 million bpd, for the second – at 104.21 million bpd, for the third – at 105.49 million bpd, and for the fourth – at 106.57 million bpd.

OECD oil demand is projected to rise by 120,000 bpd in 2025 (the earlier estimate was 130,000 bpd), whereas non-OECD demand is anticipated to grow by 1.18 million bpd (the earlier estimate was 1.17 million bpd).

Preliminary figures for October indicate that commercial oil stocks in OECD nations fell by 32 million barrels from the prior month, reaching 2.833 billion barrels. Nonetheless, this is 62.7 million barrels greater than the corresponding month last year, yet 12.4 million barrels beneath the five-year average, and 112.7 million barrels less than the average from 2015-2019 (the benchmark for the OPEC+ accord to regulate commercial inventories).

In October, oil inventories in OECD nations rose by 12.9 million barrels from September, totaling 1.34 billion barrels, whereas petroleum product inventories fell by 44.9 million barrels to reach 1.492 billion barrels.

source: reuters.com