The Strategist

How Brexit will help the Polish economy

03/08/2017 - 13:16

Britain has just entered the path of independence from the European Union, but already faced a working place crisis. More than 100,000 EU citizens left the country during the first three months after the referendum. Most of those people initially came from Poland.

Tomek Nacho via flickr
Tomek Nacho via flickr
One of the reasons why the United Kingdom decided to withdraw from the European Union was a desire to independently control the migration flows. However, now that the country is only in the process of getting out, its business has faced a serious problem. Employers worry that soon enterprises will experience a shortage of labor due to return of migrants to their homeland, writes The Independent.

Unclear position of the government towards migrants from the European Union is causing great damage to Britain, said Ufi Ibrahim, Chief Executive of the British Hospitality Association. "People do not want to move to the United Kingdom, knowing that they might have to go back," she said. "This applies not only to waiters and bartenders: even chief cooks leave their workplaces."

Moreover, the expert noted impracticality of such conditions for migrants from the European Union. "We spent millions of pounds of taxpayers on attracting workers from other countries through special organizations. If ministers become hospitable after Brexit, this will lead to a collapse," - Ufi Ibrahim told the British newspaper.

Agriculture has been hit the hardest. There are 85,000 workers from different countries working annually on farms. Mostly they come from Eastern Europe.

The UK is the most popular among natives of Poland – there are 900 thousand people from this country staying in Britain. List of countries - suppliers of work force to the island state also includes Romania, Portugal, Italy and Lithuania.

The Romanians and Bulgarians are still coming to Britain, though not in the quantities that employers are used to. Beverly Dixon, head of human resources at one of the largest vegetable companies in the UK, said that this year they all have to work harder and also employ 2,5 thousand temporary workers, writes The Independent.

This situation does not disappoint Eastern Europe at all. Governments of the countries expect that Brexit will help to return migrants to their homeland. Thus, the Polish government predicts that more than 200,000 Poles will return from Britain in the near future, which will help restore the Polish economy.

The Polish government previously compensated for the shortage of labor by providing temporary work permits to foreigners, including Ukrainians. Last year, the country took a record number of migrants - 1.3 million, Bloomberg said.

It should be noted that Poland's GDP growth slowed sharply in 2016. According to the country’s statistical office, the growth was the slowest since 2013 - 2.8%. At the same time, the Polish budget assumes an increase in the economy's growth to 3.6% in 2017, while the European Commission forecasts an increase of 3.4%.

Rafał Sura, a senator from Poland’s ruling party, said that economic growth is the Polish government’s primary task. At the same time, Sura assured that no tightening of monetary policy is expected in the near future. He says recent surge in inflation is only temporary and does not pose any risk.

It is worth noting that the Polish currency is one of the most attractive in 2017 among the developing countries of Europe. It showed growth of about 2% against the euro. 


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