The Strategist

Fitch downgrades outlook on China's credit rating to negative

04/12/2024 - 03:13

China's long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of "A+" has been confirmed by international rating agency Fitch. However, the agency revised the forecast from stable to unfavorable. China's Ministry of Finance disapproved the conclusion.

The Erica Chang
The Erica Chang
In a news release, the agency stated that the reason for the modification in the assessment was the increasing risks to China's public finances given the country's "more uncertain economic outlook." 

China's 'A+' IDR is "supported by its large and diversified economy, solid GDP growth prospects relative to other countries, important role in global trade, sound external finances," according to Fitch.

The organization projects that China's budget deficit will increase from 5.8% of GDP in 2023 to 7.1% of GDP in 2024. This will be the greatest percentage since 2020, when the coronavirus pandemic-related severe limitations hurt the nation's economy and caused it to contract by 8.6%.

However, China's GDP would expand at a slower rate in 2024—4.5% as opposed to 5.2% in 2023. According to analysts, "somewhat sluggish income growth" is one of the reasons for the drop in household consumption and the real estate sector's ongoing difficulty.