Maurice Flesier
FAO increased its worldwide wheat production estimate by 0.5% in August; however, even with this adjustment, output may still be 3.8% lower than last year's total (798.5 million tonnes), the report indicates.
The rise in the August projection is mainly attributed to upward adjustments in estimates for Canada, Morocco, Russia, and Ukraine. These rises exceed the downward adjustments to projections for the EU and the UK, where inadequate rainfall and elevated temperatures resulted in diminished yields.
The FAO's August projection for the overall global grain crop has been lowered by 3.4 million tonnes, bringing it to 2.98 billion tonnes, in comparison to the July figures. The report indicates that considering the recent changes, output in 2026 may be 2% lower than last year’s figures, marking the steepest yearly drop since 2018.
The overall forecast adjustment mainly results from a 0.6% decrease in the maize harvest projection to 1.309 billion tonnes. The primary reason is the deteriorating harvest expectations in the EU, where high temperatures and dry weather in major production areas, especially France and Poland, have caused a decline in crop health and lowered anticipated yields beneath the five-year average, as reported by FAO experts.
Additionally, the production predictions for India and Paraguay have been revised downwards according to the most recent official assessments. This decline more than compensates for the heightened predictions for Argentina and Brazil, where the 2026 yields might be considerably higher than usual.
source: reuters.com
The rise in the August projection is mainly attributed to upward adjustments in estimates for Canada, Morocco, Russia, and Ukraine. These rises exceed the downward adjustments to projections for the EU and the UK, where inadequate rainfall and elevated temperatures resulted in diminished yields.
The FAO's August projection for the overall global grain crop has been lowered by 3.4 million tonnes, bringing it to 2.98 billion tonnes, in comparison to the July figures. The report indicates that considering the recent changes, output in 2026 may be 2% lower than last year’s figures, marking the steepest yearly drop since 2018.
The overall forecast adjustment mainly results from a 0.6% decrease in the maize harvest projection to 1.309 billion tonnes. The primary reason is the deteriorating harvest expectations in the EU, where high temperatures and dry weather in major production areas, especially France and Poland, have caused a decline in crop health and lowered anticipated yields beneath the five-year average, as reported by FAO experts.
Additionally, the production predictions for India and Paraguay have been revised downwards according to the most recent official assessments. This decline more than compensates for the heightened predictions for Argentina and Brazil, where the 2026 yields might be considerably higher than usual.
source: reuters.com