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He wrote on social media that "a recession is once again a major concern."
The US economic outlook will keep getting worse as long as the Strait of Hormuz stays closed to oil tankers, even though the United States now produces about the same amount of oil and natural gas as it uses. If there is no improvement in the coming weeks, a recession might become unavoidable.
Even before the conflict with Iran, Moody's leading indicators suggested a 49% probability of a US recession occurring within the next 12 months. Zandi believes that the model estimates this probability to be 50% or higher.
Weak labor market data is the primary factor contributing to the worsening outlook for the US economy, although Zandi pointed out that numerous other economic indicators have also declined in recent months. Official data shows that the GDP growth for the fourth quarter was just 0.7%.
The conflict with Iran has made these issues worse, posing a risk of another surge in inflation for Americans who are already frustrated with high costs, according to MarketWatch.
Zandi pointed out that every economic downturn since World War II, except for the short-term decline caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, has occurred after a significant increase in oil prices.
source: marketwatch.com
The US economic outlook will keep getting worse as long as the Strait of Hormuz stays closed to oil tankers, even though the United States now produces about the same amount of oil and natural gas as it uses. If there is no improvement in the coming weeks, a recession might become unavoidable.
Even before the conflict with Iran, Moody's leading indicators suggested a 49% probability of a US recession occurring within the next 12 months. Zandi believes that the model estimates this probability to be 50% or higher.
Weak labor market data is the primary factor contributing to the worsening outlook for the US economy, although Zandi pointed out that numerous other economic indicators have also declined in recent months. Official data shows that the GDP growth for the fourth quarter was just 0.7%.
The conflict with Iran has made these issues worse, posing a risk of another surge in inflation for Americans who are already frustrated with high costs, according to MarketWatch.
Zandi pointed out that every economic downturn since World War II, except for the short-term decline caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, has occurred after a significant increase in oil prices.
source: marketwatch.com